A Heart Breaking Friday News For the “Parivaar”

GDP Growth figure for July-September, ’19, has been revealed at 4.5%. This is worst in more than 20 years

Edited by Abhishek Vasudev; re-edited by Samuel Dhar;

updated: November 29, 2019 17:32 IST.

As can be seen below, the pace of economic growth has fallen below the 5 per cent mark for the first time since 2002, (During the first NDA regime, when GDP grew at 3.8 per cent) :

      Evolution: Annual GDP India

Date	Annual GDP	GDP Growth (%)
2018	2,718,732M.$	6.8%
2017	2,652,245M.$	6.7%
2016	2,289,754M.$	7.1%
2015	2,103,588M.$	8.2%
2014	2,039,127M.$	7.4%
2013	1,856,721M.$	6.4%
2012	1,827,637M.$	5.5%
2011	1,823,052M.$	6.6%
2010	1,708,460M.$	10.3%
2009	1,365,373M.$	8.5%
2008	1,224,096M.$	3.9%
2007	1,238,700M.$	9.8%
2006	949,118M.$	9.3%
2005	834,218M.$	9.3%
2004	721,589M.$	7.9%
2003	618,369M.$	7.9%
2002	523,768M.$	3.8%
2001	493,934M.$	4.8%
2000	476,636M.$	3.8%
1999	466,841M.$	6.9%
1998	428,767M.$	6.0%
1997	423,189M.$	4.1%
1996	399,791M.$	7.6%
1995	366,600M.$	7.6%
1994	333,014M.$	6.7%
1993	284,194M.$	4.8%
1992	293,262M.$	5.5%
1991	274,842M.$	1.1%
1990	326,608M.$	5.5%

As will be seen above, throughout the 10 yrs of UPA Govt, the only time the GDP was recorded below 5% was in 2008-2009, when the entire Globe was washed over by waves of sunami of recession, originated from USA, due to the profligacy of their banking system. When the entire world went into negative growth, Indian economy remained afloat on its own, due to skillful managements by the PM, who was an expert economist himself. The 10 yrs average GDP of the UPA was 7.75 and this when the average crude price over the 10 yrs period was US $ 88.100 per barrel as against the five year average during the present regime of US $ 50.100 a good 43% lower than the 10 yrs average during NDA. Despite the lower crude prices, the retail prices went up by an average of 22%. The Govt, therefore, had an advantage of 65% higher available revenue. At an average of 4.5 lakh of import bill per year, it amounts to a five years saving of 22.5 lakh crores. What did the Govt do with this extra cash in hand?  The Govt has a job on hand to explain the missing numbers. 

The pace of economic growth has fallen below the 5 per cent mark for the first time since 2002, when GDP grew at 3.8 per cent.

The slowdown during the last quarter was revealed in the official data released last Friday. Country's Gross Domestic Product or GDP grew 4.5 per cent in the second quarter of current financial year compared with 5 per cent in the previous quarter, and 7 per cent in the same period last year. The GDP data is worse than Govt estimates. According to a poll conducted by news agency Reuters, the most pessimistic estimate of economic pundits for GDP growth was 4.7 per cent for the quarter July-September.

Not only the overall GDP, almost every economic data has nosedived. In  the litigation affected Housing Sector, new development has come to a standstill. Cement production is down by 7.7%. Steel production is down to -1.6 %. Corporate investment is down, due to weak consumer demand. Private investment is down. Crude oil production is down 5.1%. Natural gas production is down by 5.7%. Coal production is down by 17.6%. The core industries have shrunk 5.8%.

Friday's data disappointed many economists who had pinned their hopes on the recently-concluded festive season for a pickup in demand. IIP is a negative 4.3%. Against a lowering of electricity consumption by 7.1%, its generation is down by 12.4%. Like all other data, industrial production is by 1.1%. Along with all economic data, the diesel consumption is at -3.3%. Exports are down by 6.6% as are the imports (-13.5%). With an expenditure figure of INR 16.55 trillion and a shrinking revenue, in just the first 6 months, the fiscal deficit is INR 7.2 trillion as on Oct 2019, 102% beyond the Govt’s annual target. Not even the clueless mandarins in the Govt know where it will end up in the next six months. With shrinking economic parameters, the corporates are constantly cutting costs. At least five major fastmoving consumer goods have been clocking single digit.

Unemployment is at a 45 years high; further 8 – 10 lakhs jobs are at risk. Auto sales are at a 19 years low. Growth of eight top core industries was at a historic low at 0.2%. Refinery production rose just by 0.4%.

A 5 trillion economy now looks a distant dream.

The government has, for the past year or so, been exuding confidence that economic growth will pick up soon. The reality has been just the opposite, despite a series of knee jerk measures to stimulate the economy, ranging from withdrawal of higher taxes on foreign investors, a mega merger plan for state-run lenders, housing stimulus and a reduction in corporate taxes over the past few months.

With her M Phil in International Studies, all around experience exposer since joining the BJP Govt, the first full time woman Defence Minister of India and now the Finance Minister, of its present dispensation, much was expected of the combative, glib talking Nirmala Sitharaman. She has not only not delivered, but has managed to push the Country’s economy, through a series of naïve policies, into a bottomless pit, where it is bound to languish till our concerned Minister is either a knowledgeable economists or/and have a more knowledgeable advisor to be listened to.

During a debate in the Rajya Sabha last Wednesday, Ms Sitharaman herself acknowledged the slowdown in economy and repeated, ad-nauseam, the hackneyed line, "Growth may have come down, but it is not recession yet or it won't be recession ever".

The Reserve Bank of India, a constitutional authority but no more and independent Central Bank of India, has been indulging in ad-hoc lowering of the repo rates to push-up the economy. Over the last 12 months, it has cut the repo rate five times totalling 135 basis points and is likely to be coerced to exercise a further cut the repo rate in December, by 25 basis points. That it will again be inconsequential, is a foregone certainty.

Solution

Supply follows demand. No one will produce unless his product is likely to be sold, i.e., the demand goes up. Demand can go up only if consumer has money in pocket. The consumer cannot have money in his pocket unless the employer puts it there. Not only the private sector, even the Govt and the PSUs have proved to be bad pay masters. Wages are not as per skills. There are unpaid wages. The Govt often chooses litigation against hapless employees. A country of 1.35 billion people, it should not be difficult to maintain an internal GDP of around 6%. With a global village, it should not be difficult to add another 2 – 3% to the GDP.

Instead of sinking billions as NPAs of loans to big industries, but SMEs, who will generate employment and pose lesser risk of loans turning NPAs. Bangladesh, a country that India created and that too, only in 1971 and which, before that, was an impoverished country, has not surpassed India as a faster growing economy, based on its big industries, but SMEs, financed through their Gramin Banks networks.

The present satrap is, however, more interested in relentless naked effort to capture power at all costs, by all means, under all circumstances with a façade of a strong leadership and dark clouds of blatant lies, criminal deceit, fake news and a prestitude media.

THE AYODHYA JUDGEMENT

The Temple Mount, with the Al-Aqsa Compound,In Jerusalem, is the Most Holy place both in Judaism and Christianity and the third most Holy place in Islam. What Mecca is to the Muslims, The Temple Mount is to the Jews. The Temple was constructed twice and each time destroyed subsequently by an occupying force; the last in 70 AD by the Romans, when the Christianity was taking shape, under severe oppression and persecution by the Romans.

With the advent of Islam and its subsequent conquests, the Islamic Caliphate changed the complexion of the entire mount, constructing Al-Aqsa Mosque, two domes, (One of them in the centre of the compound, where the twice destroyed Jewish temple once stood) and minarets, just 600 yrs before, making it into the third most revered place in Islam, a place from where, as per them, Prophet Mohammad ascended to Heaven.
It is a classic case of clash of not only three religions, which rose up in three points in time, but also a severe clash of three civilizations, one older than the other.
And yet, today, in a Jewish country, governed by a highly conservative Govt, majoritarianism has been voluntarily dis-favoured. Organised prayer is prohibited for any one but a Muslim group. Only individual prayers on the Western Wal;, I have myself stood next a Rabi and prayed for the repose of the soul of my beloved departed wife, who couldn't make it there in her life time. There are 11 gates to the Mount, 10 of which are reserved for Muslims. 

This is the compromise a die hard Jewish state had to make, to convert a place of perennial tri-religious conflict, into a show piece, as a heaven of peace, for the World to see and emulate, which no one, but a fanatic, wants disturbed.
India is still a secular country, enshrined in the Constitution of our Country; a constitution, which every functionary, in each of governance arms, is pledged to uphold. We bray about Bharat being the leader in the entire civilized world form time immemorial and yet, we could not even follow a good example.

This judgement of the HSCI, may be the final push for our secularist Country to plunge in to the abyss of Majoritarian Hindu Rashtra of the Parivar brand
The million dollar question we all must ask ourselves is, "Have we crossed the Rubicon?"

NFFU : THE ARMY AND THE CAPF

CAPF officers struggled AND WON to make NFFU applicable to them despite the understandable opposition from their senior officers as majority of them belong to IPS, a different cadre. But the armed forces officers are still struggling? What is not understandable is opposition of the senior officers of the Armed Forces who despite belonging to the same cadre, are opposing the applicability of NFFU to the Armed Forces and by doing so they are not only depriving their own junior brother/ sister officers but also shooting themselves in their feet. It is a typical case of lose – lose situation in the management jargon. Let’s analyse.

 Recently there was a news item. “ Bihar Cadre IAS officer Vivek Kumar Singh(1989 batch) has been promoted to Chief Secretary rank in the fixed pay scale of Rs. 2.25 lakh per month. Singh is principal secretary. A notification issued by the general administrative department on Friday, stated that his post has been upgraded to the Chief Secretary rank”. (The Times of India Patna Saturday September 07 2019).

This is a very interesting news item. In this an IAS officer of 1989 batch has got promoted in situ on 06 September 2019 to Apex Scale (Rs. 2.25 lakhs per month (Secretary to Government of India).

 So the things that strike are, firstly, this is not a case of promotion by NFFU/NFU for obvious reasons, since the same is applicable only to organised Group A Services other than IAS. The second thing that strikes is that, prima facie, the promotion did not take place because a vacancy arose in a post in higher scale viz Apex scale. But the promotion took place because the officer had to be promoted to Apex scale for some reason and the only way to do that was to upgrade the existing post of principal secretary to chief secretary. (I think it is interesting method. In this it appears that the by some divine right an IAS officer has to be promoted to the Apex Scale after a certain number of years of service (30years ?) whether there is vacancy or not. In case there is vacancy fine, otherwise posts in lower scale are upgraded!!! (Modified flexible complementing??) 

This news item reminded me of other two news items in the last one month. Under the Heading in “https://www.thehindubusinessline.com”

Manoj Mukund Naravane appointed next vice chief. PTI New Delhi | Updated on July 22, 2019 Published on July 22, 2019 .

This news item, inter alia, contained the following news :-

“In another key appointment, Director General of Military Operations Lt Gen Anil Chauhan will be new General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Command.” The General Officer has since assumed the appointment of GOC-in-C on 01 Sep 2019. (Promoted to the rank of Lt Gen on 01 July 2016.) (Source Wikipedia).

 The above mentioned Lt Gen is from 1981 batch. But the first to be promoted as Army Commander from 1981 batch, was Lt Gen SS Saini who was promoted to the rank of  Lt Gen on 21 May 2016 and later appointed as Army Commander (Apex Scale) on 01 Oct 2018(source Wikipedia).

Since no officer from Army from 1982 batch has yet been appointed as Army Commander (i.e Apex scale), by a very crude method of deduction, the difference between the Army and the IAS to reach the apex scale, is at least 7 to 8 years.

Now let us examine a real situation. The Central Army Commander is due to retire on 30 September 2019. His replacement as per media reports is a Lt Gen, again from the 1981 batch who will get promoted as Army Commander (Apex Scale) on 01 October 2019.

  The Central Army Command, as per Wikipedia, is geographically spread over 7 states including Bihar where the ibid IAS officer of 1989 batch has already been promoted as Additional Chief Secretary in the Apex scale. This IAS officer will in probability be the junior most among the many IAS officers in Apex Scale posted in the state of Bihar (The official list shows 11 with one vacant in Apex scale apart from those on central deputation). There are already many IPS officers in the Apex scale (The official list shows 14 including 7 on central deputation) in state of Bihar. All these IAS and IPS officers, many years junior in service, will obviously be Senior to this Army commander about to be promoted. One can safely assume similar would be the case in the other six states of Central Command. There will also be officers from other Civil Services like IRS, Railways etc in Apex scale in these seven states. The number of Civil Services Officers in Apex scale in these seven states who will be senior to the only Army Officer in Apex scale (Army Commander) in the seven states of Central Command is simply mind boggling.

Is it any wonder that all the Civil Services officers who are already in the Apex scale would legitimately consider themselves senior to the Army Commanders and Corps commanders who were commissioned much earlier? Will this not cause conflict in the smooth functioning of the unified functioning of civil services and armed forces in the insurgency/ terrorism affected states?

The second obvious disadvantage would be that army officers promoted to the Apex scale would remain in this scale for only two to three years as against seven to eight years for the IAS before they retire.

It is obvious that the senior officers of the armed forces have been shooting themselves in their feet by opposing the extension of NFFU to the Armed Forces officers as well as by opposing upgradation of more appointments/ranks to the Apex Scale.

If the senior armed forces officers do not want to see themselves in this embarrassing situation, the logical endeavour should be to increase the number of vacancies in the Apex Scale as also lower scales, so much so that the Armed forces officers also get promoted at par with the civil services officers by, inter alia, by not only whole heartedly supporting NFFU but also recommending ‘the same system of promotion (modified flexible complementing) for the Armed forces as the IAS for promotion up to the Apex Pay Scale’.

Win-Win Situation. If the NFU as well as the system of promotion to the Apex Pay scale as applicable to the IAS, were made applicable to the armed forces, then the present lot of officers in the ranks of Brigadiers to Lt Generals would have got the Apex pay scale and all other scales down the line at the same time as the IAS officers and there would be no conflict of ego in the joint operations of any kind be it insurgency or counter terrorism or Natural Disaster relief. The whole system would function as well-oiled efficient machinery for the betterment of the country. This is a win-win situation for everyone especially the country and political leadership. (Why Brigadier in Apex scale? Because even after massive degradation since independence, the Brigadier and Colonel were equated with “ DIG” by the third CPC (Para 48, Chapter 11, Vol – I, 3rd CPC). Many of these posts of “DIGs” have since been renamed (upgraded) as DGP and are in Apex Scale. To amplify the highest post for  the IPS in the states was IG of which there were, at the maximum, only two posts till 3rd CPC (Para 50, Chapter 11, Vol – I, 3rd CPC). Now in Bihar, today there are four posts of DGP in Apex scale. Obviously the additional two of these posts would have been that of DIG (upgraded to DGP) at the time of third CPC to which the Brigadiers and Colonels were equated).

   

It is amply clear that by not looking beyond their noses, some senior Armed forces officers have not only harmed their juniors but are also digging graves for themselves.. It is time that they reinvent themselves and take shelter of the Chetwode motto “the Honour Welfare and the comfort of the men you command come next” and get their subordinates their legitimate dues. If they do this “Your own ease comfort and safety’ including every worldly things like power, wealth and prestige will follow.

FAQ

Question : How can we up grade? Ours is a very steep pyramidical hierarchy. We cannot upgrade the posts without it adversely affecting the command and control structure.

Ans. When we were children we were told the story of a wily fox who invited his friend a simpleton crane for a grand dinner. The only dish, mouthwatering soup, was served in plate. Now this plate suited the fox, which quickly devoured the deliciously prepared soup. But because of its long beak, the crane could do nothing and went home hungry. Next time the Crane invited the fox. This time the soup was served in long neck vessel which was obviously unsuitable for the fox and this time the fox went home hungry. So the solution for the crane was not to try and modify its head and beak to resemble a fox, but to change the vessel in which the soup was served. All these years we have been trying to modify our “ beak to resemble the mouth of fox” by aping the civil services, when the solution was to modify the vessel which is upgrade the pay scales of the army ranks and only selectively upgrade the appointments viz upgrade the pay scale of army ranks whenever there is upgradation of posts in the civil side. (more on this later).

Ques..   How can you have all the ranks from Brigadiers to Lt Generals in the same pay scale? This will adversely affect the command and control. (Interestingly this argument is also used to oppose NFFU.)

Ans.   Firstly ‘command and control’ in the armed forces is not dependent upon pay scales like civil services.  Our rules of seniority for the purposes of command and control are very well defined. To recollect they are

“If there are two armed forces officers, the command and control is exercised by the person holding the higher rank (irrespective of the fact that the rank is acting, substantive, local or brevet). If both officers are of the same rank, then the date of substantive rank will determine the inter se seniority. In case the date of substantive rank is also the same, then the officer who was higher in merit at the time of commissioning will be senior”. Now in this gamut of seniority and command and control where does the pay scale figure??

In 1983, somewhere in field, when I was in 7th Battalion the Sikh Regt, we had officers with more than twelve years of seniority in the rank of Captain. Where as in the same brigade there was another battalion where officers with thee years of service were Majors. Obviously these field Majors with lesser years of service and getting lesser pay would be senior to the Captains in my battalion for the purpose of command and control. So to say that pay has any effect on command and control would be a patently incorrect.

There is another custom for exercising command and control. In this the command is exercised by the officer belonging to the arm of which the immediate operations primarily relate to. E.g. In patrolling, even if there are senior officers from other arms like Engineers, Armoured Corps or Medical Corps, the command is always exercised by the infantry officer, however junior he may be. I have myself been part of a patrol where the Patrol leader was junior in rank and service to the officers from other arms and services.

 Nowhere do we see the pay scale of the officers creating any roadblocks in the smooth conduct of operations.

Secondly in response to the “how can we have so many ranks in one pay scale” , I will remind the people exclaiming this that even today there are two ranks viz Lt and Captain, their pay scales differentiated by alphabets (three if the rank of 2nd Lt was not abolished) in the equivalent of one civilian pay scale viz Junior scale. Conversely if the argument is “one rank one pay scale” then I would like to remind the worthies, that there is one rank with three pay scales in case of Lt Generals viz HAG, HAG+ and Apex scale. Incidentally let us go back to the year 1971 when the Indian Army won the war with highest laurels. At this time the Army Commanders were in the same pay scale as other Lt Generals. They were also lower than the pay scale of Secretaries to the Government of India. None of the aspects related to pay scales adversely affected the smooth conduct of operations.

STAND UP AND BE COUNTED

Adrina, our Friend on our face book page, comments, "It's a, 'who wins' race, between a tanking economy and a tanking democracy".

A fair comment, but from where I stand, my dear sisters, brothers, friends and fellow citizens, it's a no race, for it was over, before it started.

The standard and hallmark of a flourishing democracy is its rock solid Constitution. Till of late, the Constitution of India was being snipped at, furiously at that, but of late there have been daring, direct frontal assaults on it from all directions, flung at the fac e of the whole world, most blatantly and un-apologetically.

Our Democracy died the way the 2014 Parliamentary Elections were allowed to be constructed, when छप्पन छाती was allowed to hop was allowed to hop all over the Country in a private plane, with its cost unaccounted for, either individually or collectively. ECI let it ride and the HSC snoozed.

Our Democracy died when our Country was defrauded with an unending string of lies and deceit, let loose on a largely naive electorate. The ECI looked on approvingly and the HSC failed to exercise its moral and legal duties.

Our Democracy died when the valor of our soldiers was shamelessly piggy ridden by the ruling dispensation for their nefarious political purposes, with a toothless ECI issuing unenforced edicts and turning admirers when specific complaints were lodged with them.

Our Democracy died when the ECI became blatantly partial manner turned down all complaints in a determined manner in respect of the last Parliamentary elections of, both in the run-up, during the con duct as well as post balloting.

Our Democracy died when the uniformed top brass forgot that the soldiers take oath of upholding their Country's sacred Constitution and not the Govt of the day.

Our Democracy died when in a series of unholy coup d'etats, with the shameless display of money, muscle, political power, elected representatives were w over, both singly and En-Masse and the watch dogs of democracy un-apologetically behaved like the proverbial three monkeys.

Our Democracy died when all constitutional institutions were, blatantly, shamelessly and most unconstitutionally, arm twisted into submission, either through carrots or sticks or threats or even by taking away the lives of unbending sentinels.

And finally our Democracy died on the 5th of August this year when the constitution was first asphyxiated and then cut into pieces in State, where the forefathers of many an illustrious citizens of our Country had lived and flourished in the unique spirit of Kashmiriyat, with the HSC, (Forget about taking a suo-motu cognizance), while continuing to devote all its time, energy and resources to hearing a land dispute, not even finding a bench to hear the myriad complaints in over two months.

My beloved fellow citizens and our children, this is our Democracy, not any body's जागीर, to be appropriated by any one whatsoever, be it an individual or a govt. Democracy is under attack all over the world, including the oldest democracy, whose Parliamentary System we borrowed as a model; just look around.

Are we going to look on passively, when our most prized possession is being snatched away from the depths of our bosom ? Are we that helpless a people.

What is our inheritance from this death?

• A steeply declining economy, jet-diving into a bottomless pit.
• A fractured society, where the brothers & sisters and at times, couples, are at each other's throat.
• A fractured polity, where consensus, even in National issues, is well neigh impossible.
• A fractured & frightened judiciary, unable to cope with delivery of justice.
• A fractured Armed Forces, the last fortification against disintegration of the Constitution of our Nation.

Is भारत not the Nation ,in which a धोबी forced a mighty धर्म राजा, to ask his pure and sinless wife to undergo a purity test by fire ? Is भारत not the Nation which has, through ages, set the pace for the World to follow?

My beloveds, time is long past for us to be counting our chickens. It is high time for each one of us to stand up and be counted for our भारत माता and its standard bearer, the sacred Constitution of India; fearlessly, un-apologetically & unhesitatingly,

STAND UP AND BE COUNTED